Monday, October 13, 2014

Build Your Perfect Team With This Auction Draft Strategy

Typically, most leagues prefer to use the Snake Draft settings when it comes to fantasy sports.  It's simpler, more understandable, and all up to chance.  It could be argued that it definitely depends on your picks, and any position could win, but if you really wanted to grab Kevin Durant or Steph Curry and you are handed the 11th pick, unfortunately you have no chance.  In an auction draft, you could shell out a little more of your allotted cash and pay up for your favorite player.  For this reason, the auction draft could be considered more preferable among experienced fantasy players.  For this reason, I suggest this be your draft settings this year.  But how do you know how much a player is worth or how much you should spend on a particular player?  I'll help you out - here are some tips for drafting your perfect team.

For basic information on the format of auction drafts, check out this link: Auction Draft

Essentially, each team is given 200 fantasy dollars to budget (you want to use every last one as there is no benefit to having anything leftover after the draft).  Each team will take a turn nominating players to be put up for auction, and every owner has an equal opportunity to purchase the players. The auction will continue until bidding stops, at which time there will be a system alert for "Going Once," "Going Twice," and "Sold!" So let's give you an overall idea of how much these players typically go for.  The below numbers are current averages for the upcoming 2014-15 fantasy season.

1. Kevin Durant - 82.1
2. LeBron James - 78.3
3. Anthony Davis - 67.0
4. Stephen Curry - 65.9
5. Chris Paul - 59.5
6. Kevin Love - 55.5
7. James Harden - 55.3
8. Carmelo Anthony - 52.6
9. John Wall - 50.7
10. Russell Westbrook - 49.8
11. DeMarcus Cousins - 44.0
12. Serge Ibaka - 40.6
13. LaMarcus Aldridge - 40.3
14. Blake Griffin - 39.1
15. Kyrie Irving - 38.4
16. Dirk Nowitzki - 33.3
17. Al Jefferson - 33.0
18. Damian Lillard - 32.8
19. Joakim Noah - 31.1
20. Kawhi Leonard - 28.9
21. Goran Dragic - 27.2
22. Ty Lawson - 26.1
23. Chris Bosh - 26.0
24. Nicolas Batum - 25.9
25. Kobe Bryant - 25.7
26. Kyle Lowry - 25.4
27. Paul George - 24.4 (Come on now, the guy broke his leg.)
28. Dwight Howard - 23.4
29. Rajon Rondo - 23.2
30. Marc Gasol - 22.9

For complete and up-to-date rankings, head over to ESPN's current draft results.

So that's just food for thought.  Here's my advice:

1. Don't blow your money on LeBron James
Sounds harsh, but considering the circumstances, it's tough to justify blowing almost 80 of your 200 dollars on him.  He's on a new team with superstars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love who are going to get theirs as well.  I believe he may become more efficient but will lose out in production.  Kevin Durant might be a different circumstance, as he placed 1st in fantasy points by a solid margin.  Even still, it's hard to say he's worth 82.  My point is, don't blow a ton of money on a player, even if you think he might be worth it.  Durant will be consistent every week, and will provide everything you want from a fantasy player, but would you rather have Durant for 82 or would you rather have Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, and Joakim Noah for a combined 80?  The temptation is there, but just be smart.

2. Do your research and look for bargains
First of all, I'm not saying don't bother with any of these top players.  You want them, so spend some money and get a couple of them.  What I'm saying is do your research beforehand and see what kind of bargains you can get after people drop their big money early.  Let your opponents fight it out for Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Dragic, and Lawson, and then go grab Derrick Rose for 21 dollars.

3. Look deep in the player rankings
Similarly to number 2, go through all the players and look for names you might be surprised to find so deep.  Plan accordingly, and determine a set amount you're prepared to spend on these players before the draft, and adjust depending on how the rest of your draft is going.  Look at Chandler Parsons currently going for the 50th-most at 13.1 dollars, or Lance Stephenson going for the 67th-most at a mere 7.7 dollars.  Looking even deeper, you can find Trevor Ariza for 5.8 dollars or Jimmy Butler for 4.5 dollars.  You can build a great squad for very cheap, so now you should be starting to see it may be wise to spend 100-120 of your cash on a couple of these top-30 players.

4. Follow the pre-season hype
Pre-season matches are always an experimental phase.  For the Bulls, it's all about Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah becoming fully healthy and seeing how they're playing.  But look a little closer, and notice that Mike Dunleavy sat out with an injury in their third match, with rookie Doug McDermott getting the start and helping out in their first win of the season.  Maybe consider picking him up last because he's currently only owned in 21% of leagues, and you could get him for a single dollar.  Other names you could get off the waiver or for a dollar are Amar'e Stoudemire, Gorgui Dieng, and Steve Nash.

5. Big men are the most valuable
If nothing else, make sure you draft yourself two solid big men who are ready to produce every night.  The rebounds will always be there, the field goal percentage will always be there, and you can probably get some blocks while having them commit very few turnovers.  Obviously the big scorers and shooters are your guards, but there are so many of them that you could get one of a slightly lesser talent for much less.  When you get past the first 20 or so big men, you're looking at Roy Hibbert and Zach Randolph, and while still productive, they don't have the consistency or production as Dwight Howard or Blake Griffin might.

6. Shooting guards are in high demand
And by high demand, I mean there aren't a lot of greatly valuable ones.  In the top 40 players, only 3 are shooting guards - James Harden (55 dollars), Kobe Bryant (25.7 dollars), and Klay Thompson (19 dollars).  My advice is grab one of these three, preferably Harden or Bryant.  You can find other good point guards and small forwards, but it's a lot tougher to find another fantasy-dominant shooting guard.  These guys provide a very small window.

Now for just a few more tips on the actual drafting strategy.

7. Don't run up prices if you're not willing to pay
A typical game plan is running up prices of players to make other owners pay more, especially if you know certain owners want certain players.  So when somebody nominates Rondo because they're a die-hard Celtics fan, don't bid 30 or 35 trying to run up the price if you're not willing to live with the possibility that you might end up paying that amount.

8. Don't nominate a player you have determined you want
By nominating the players you want, you are doing two things.  First, you're telling everybody you want this player and you're willing to pay for him.  Secondly, you're throwing a player into the auction early, which will almost guarantee he will go for higher than you could get him for in a later round.  So don't nominate Russell Westbrook 5th, but let someone else nominate him 12th when most people have already purchased a high-end player.

9. There will be a happy medium of demand-players
There will come a time in the draft (it's different in every draft) where owners will start realizing they have a lot of money leftover and were saving it for players that end up very cheap.  There will be owners who have vowed to not spend more than 30 on any player, but by the time the 25th pick comes around, they realize they have 200 dollars to spend on 13 roster spots and they'll start spending more on players you thought you'd get cheap.  For this reason, I strongly recommend buying up a few big name players fairly early on.

10. Look forward to April
The Road to the Playoffs.  Ah, always an interesting stretch.  To put it plainly, the weaker Eastern Conference teams are pretty much set in stone, and the 2-4 spots don't really matter because the 5-7 spots are so much weaker that the higher seeds are okay playing just about everyone.  Your top 4 Eastern teams are going to be (in no particular order) the Bulls, Cavs, Heat, and Wizards.  Your bottom 4 playoff teams in the East are going to be the Hornets, Hawks, Raptors and Nets.  Although the fight is getting more competitive this year, the Cavs and Heat aren't going to run their stars to the ground trying to match up with the Hawks instead of the Raptors.  See where I'm going with this?  There are always players that sit out the end of the season (and inconveniently, the fantasy playoffs).  Watch out for LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Garnett, to name a few, to have a reduction in minutes when you need them the most.  It's safe to say that Western Conference players have tougher matchups but also tend to play full games as the season ends as they are battling for seeding.

11. Don't rule out or make promises on any players pre-draft
Basically, don't cross of any names from your options or promise to pay whatever it takes to get a certain player.  Every player is an option until they're bought, so draft objectively.  You may decide you aren't going to draft Nerlens Noel or Rajon Rondo because of injury history, but if they're at the right price, they're worth the gamble.  On the other hand, don't just keep bidding higher on Blake Griffin because you want to name your team Frosted Blakes.

12. Don't draft any Spurs.
Except Kawhi Leonard.


Thanks for reading, and I hope this helped you out a bit! Good luck with your drafts, and I will shortly be posting some pre-draft player rankings!

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