Showing posts with label LeBron James. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LeBron James. Show all posts

Monday, October 13, 2014

Build Your Perfect Team With This Auction Draft Strategy

Typically, most leagues prefer to use the Snake Draft settings when it comes to fantasy sports.  It's simpler, more understandable, and all up to chance.  It could be argued that it definitely depends on your picks, and any position could win, but if you really wanted to grab Kevin Durant or Steph Curry and you are handed the 11th pick, unfortunately you have no chance.  In an auction draft, you could shell out a little more of your allotted cash and pay up for your favorite player.  For this reason, the auction draft could be considered more preferable among experienced fantasy players.  For this reason, I suggest this be your draft settings this year.  But how do you know how much a player is worth or how much you should spend on a particular player?  I'll help you out - here are some tips for drafting your perfect team.

For basic information on the format of auction drafts, check out this link: Auction Draft

Essentially, each team is given 200 fantasy dollars to budget (you want to use every last one as there is no benefit to having anything leftover after the draft).  Each team will take a turn nominating players to be put up for auction, and every owner has an equal opportunity to purchase the players. The auction will continue until bidding stops, at which time there will be a system alert for "Going Once," "Going Twice," and "Sold!" So let's give you an overall idea of how much these players typically go for.  The below numbers are current averages for the upcoming 2014-15 fantasy season.

1. Kevin Durant - 82.1
2. LeBron James - 78.3
3. Anthony Davis - 67.0
4. Stephen Curry - 65.9
5. Chris Paul - 59.5
6. Kevin Love - 55.5
7. James Harden - 55.3
8. Carmelo Anthony - 52.6
9. John Wall - 50.7
10. Russell Westbrook - 49.8
11. DeMarcus Cousins - 44.0
12. Serge Ibaka - 40.6
13. LaMarcus Aldridge - 40.3
14. Blake Griffin - 39.1
15. Kyrie Irving - 38.4
16. Dirk Nowitzki - 33.3
17. Al Jefferson - 33.0
18. Damian Lillard - 32.8
19. Joakim Noah - 31.1
20. Kawhi Leonard - 28.9
21. Goran Dragic - 27.2
22. Ty Lawson - 26.1
23. Chris Bosh - 26.0
24. Nicolas Batum - 25.9
25. Kobe Bryant - 25.7
26. Kyle Lowry - 25.4
27. Paul George - 24.4 (Come on now, the guy broke his leg.)
28. Dwight Howard - 23.4
29. Rajon Rondo - 23.2
30. Marc Gasol - 22.9

For complete and up-to-date rankings, head over to ESPN's current draft results.

So that's just food for thought.  Here's my advice:

1. Don't blow your money on LeBron James
Sounds harsh, but considering the circumstances, it's tough to justify blowing almost 80 of your 200 dollars on him.  He's on a new team with superstars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love who are going to get theirs as well.  I believe he may become more efficient but will lose out in production.  Kevin Durant might be a different circumstance, as he placed 1st in fantasy points by a solid margin.  Even still, it's hard to say he's worth 82.  My point is, don't blow a ton of money on a player, even if you think he might be worth it.  Durant will be consistent every week, and will provide everything you want from a fantasy player, but would you rather have Durant for 82 or would you rather have Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, and Joakim Noah for a combined 80?  The temptation is there, but just be smart.

2. Do your research and look for bargains
First of all, I'm not saying don't bother with any of these top players.  You want them, so spend some money and get a couple of them.  What I'm saying is do your research beforehand and see what kind of bargains you can get after people drop their big money early.  Let your opponents fight it out for Kyrie, Paul, Curry, Dragic, and Lawson, and then go grab Derrick Rose for 21 dollars.

3. Look deep in the player rankings
Similarly to number 2, go through all the players and look for names you might be surprised to find so deep.  Plan accordingly, and determine a set amount you're prepared to spend on these players before the draft, and adjust depending on how the rest of your draft is going.  Look at Chandler Parsons currently going for the 50th-most at 13.1 dollars, or Lance Stephenson going for the 67th-most at a mere 7.7 dollars.  Looking even deeper, you can find Trevor Ariza for 5.8 dollars or Jimmy Butler for 4.5 dollars.  You can build a great squad for very cheap, so now you should be starting to see it may be wise to spend 100-120 of your cash on a couple of these top-30 players.

4. Follow the pre-season hype
Pre-season matches are always an experimental phase.  For the Bulls, it's all about Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah becoming fully healthy and seeing how they're playing.  But look a little closer, and notice that Mike Dunleavy sat out with an injury in their third match, with rookie Doug McDermott getting the start and helping out in their first win of the season.  Maybe consider picking him up last because he's currently only owned in 21% of leagues, and you could get him for a single dollar.  Other names you could get off the waiver or for a dollar are Amar'e Stoudemire, Gorgui Dieng, and Steve Nash.

5. Big men are the most valuable
If nothing else, make sure you draft yourself two solid big men who are ready to produce every night.  The rebounds will always be there, the field goal percentage will always be there, and you can probably get some blocks while having them commit very few turnovers.  Obviously the big scorers and shooters are your guards, but there are so many of them that you could get one of a slightly lesser talent for much less.  When you get past the first 20 or so big men, you're looking at Roy Hibbert and Zach Randolph, and while still productive, they don't have the consistency or production as Dwight Howard or Blake Griffin might.

6. Shooting guards are in high demand
And by high demand, I mean there aren't a lot of greatly valuable ones.  In the top 40 players, only 3 are shooting guards - James Harden (55 dollars), Kobe Bryant (25.7 dollars), and Klay Thompson (19 dollars).  My advice is grab one of these three, preferably Harden or Bryant.  You can find other good point guards and small forwards, but it's a lot tougher to find another fantasy-dominant shooting guard.  These guys provide a very small window.

Now for just a few more tips on the actual drafting strategy.

7. Don't run up prices if you're not willing to pay
A typical game plan is running up prices of players to make other owners pay more, especially if you know certain owners want certain players.  So when somebody nominates Rondo because they're a die-hard Celtics fan, don't bid 30 or 35 trying to run up the price if you're not willing to live with the possibility that you might end up paying that amount.

8. Don't nominate a player you have determined you want
By nominating the players you want, you are doing two things.  First, you're telling everybody you want this player and you're willing to pay for him.  Secondly, you're throwing a player into the auction early, which will almost guarantee he will go for higher than you could get him for in a later round.  So don't nominate Russell Westbrook 5th, but let someone else nominate him 12th when most people have already purchased a high-end player.

9. There will be a happy medium of demand-players
There will come a time in the draft (it's different in every draft) where owners will start realizing they have a lot of money leftover and were saving it for players that end up very cheap.  There will be owners who have vowed to not spend more than 30 on any player, but by the time the 25th pick comes around, they realize they have 200 dollars to spend on 13 roster spots and they'll start spending more on players you thought you'd get cheap.  For this reason, I strongly recommend buying up a few big name players fairly early on.

10. Look forward to April
The Road to the Playoffs.  Ah, always an interesting stretch.  To put it plainly, the weaker Eastern Conference teams are pretty much set in stone, and the 2-4 spots don't really matter because the 5-7 spots are so much weaker that the higher seeds are okay playing just about everyone.  Your top 4 Eastern teams are going to be (in no particular order) the Bulls, Cavs, Heat, and Wizards.  Your bottom 4 playoff teams in the East are going to be the Hornets, Hawks, Raptors and Nets.  Although the fight is getting more competitive this year, the Cavs and Heat aren't going to run their stars to the ground trying to match up with the Hawks instead of the Raptors.  See where I'm going with this?  There are always players that sit out the end of the season (and inconveniently, the fantasy playoffs).  Watch out for LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Garnett, to name a few, to have a reduction in minutes when you need them the most.  It's safe to say that Western Conference players have tougher matchups but also tend to play full games as the season ends as they are battling for seeding.

11. Don't rule out or make promises on any players pre-draft
Basically, don't cross of any names from your options or promise to pay whatever it takes to get a certain player.  Every player is an option until they're bought, so draft objectively.  You may decide you aren't going to draft Nerlens Noel or Rajon Rondo because of injury history, but if they're at the right price, they're worth the gamble.  On the other hand, don't just keep bidding higher on Blake Griffin because you want to name your team Frosted Blakes.

12. Don't draft any Spurs.
Except Kawhi Leonard.


Thanks for reading, and I hope this helped you out a bit! Good luck with your drafts, and I will shortly be posting some pre-draft player rankings!

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Why LeBron's Fantasy Value Drops in Cleveland


For the past nine years, LeBron James has dominated fantasy basketball and commanded the #1 or #2 draft pick in just about every draft since he's been in the league.  And he's been well-deserving of it.  LeBron may very well be in his prime as a player, but returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers hurts his fantasy value.  Here's why.

1. He's no longer the only player on his team.  Yeah, yeah, he had Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami.  Wade played maybe half the games in the 2013-2014 season, and Chris Bosh doesn't create for himself.  He was more of a LeBron-get-me-the-ball-and-then-I'll-score type of guy.  Now, he's joining a team who already has an All-Star and all-around point-guard in Kyrie Irving, the #1 draft pick Andrew Wiggins, Dion Waiters, and potentially Kevin Love.  He's surrounded with people who can score and create, and he no longer has to shoulder the full load of both.

2. He won't be bringing the ball down as often.  Similarly to the previous statement, LeBron will not be commanding as many point-forward duties as he did in Miami.  In Miami, the starting point-guard was Mario Chalmers, whose claim to fame was a game-winning shot in the NCAA Tournament.  (Harsh, but true.)  His back-up, Norris Cole, was more efficient and has higher potential than Chalmers, in my opinion.  But no matter who was on the court, LeBron brought the ball down most of the time.  He won't be bringing it down as often in Cleveland with Kyrie Irving at point, taking away from his time with the ball.

3. He won't be required to rebound as much.  In Miami, his bigs were Chris Anderson (Birdman) and Chris Bosh, who averaged 5.3 and 6.6 RPG, respectively, a total of 11.9 a game.  In Cleveland, the bigs are Tristan Thompson and Anderson Verejao, who averaged 9.2 and 9.7 RPG, respectively, for a total of 18.9.  Add Kevin Love to the mix, and that takes even more rebounds away from LeBron.

Add it all up, I see a reduction of LeBron's stats across the board - points, assists, and rebounds.  However, that also opens up LeBron for increased efficiency, if it's even possible to shoot higher than 56.7% from the field, and a decrease in turnovers from his 3.5 per game last year.  It's possible that LeBron becomes a little more complacent in Cleveland because of the depth there, but that he becomes more efficient.  I would still draft him in the top 7, but I can definitely think of at least five players who I would select before him in the draft.

Here are my top fifteen rankings:
1. Kevin Durant
2. Chris Paul
3. LaMarcus Aldridge
4. Anthony Davis
5. Stephen Curry
6. Russell Westbrook
7. Kevin Love
8. John Wall
9. LeBron James
10. DeMarcus Cousins
11. James Harden
12. Derrick Rose
13. Paul George
14. Joakim Noah
15. Kobe Bryant (if healthy); if not, Blake Griffin

Runners-up for the top fifteen include: Kyle Lowry, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, Chandler Parsons, Al Horford, Goran Dragic, Damian Lillard, Carmelo Anthony, and Kyrie Irving.

I will submit full top 100 rankings a few weeks before the start of the fantasy league drafts, but until then, study up!

Friday, July 25, 2014

Jumbled Up NBA - How It Will Affect the Fantasy Year


The NBA thought it was time to mix things up again.  This offseason has probably been one of the most dramatic in at least the past fifteen years.  LeBron James returned to his hometown Cavaliers. Chris Bosh declined Houston's offer to re-sign with the Miami Heat with Dwyane Wade, adding Luol Deng in LeBron's spot.  Trevor Ariza left Washington to sign with Houston, who failed to match the Mavericks' 3 year, $46 million offer for Chandler Parsons.  Carmelo Anthony dramatically chose to re-sign a max contract with the Knicks after being pursued by Chicago and Houston.  Chicago signed Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, and rookie Doug McDermott, making them one of the deepest teams in the league.  It's been crazy, and I'm here to give you every little detail on how this affects the league and your fantasy year.

You can stay up to date on all the latest action here: http://www.thescore.com/nba/offseason

So who's stock is going to rise because of their new destination?

1. Chandler Parsons, Mavericks SF
This guy is one of the best all-around players in the league.  He will consistently give you production across the board every night while shooting consistently and keeping the turnovers down.  I predict he'll be a 20 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists guy in Dallas as one of the main options.  Look for this guy early on in your draft.

2. Lance Stephenson, Hornets SG
Stephenson led the NBA in triple-doubles last season, and despite his reputation for blowing in superstars' ears, he's one of the toughest guards in the league, and one of the best rebounding ones as well.  Last season, Stephenson was third in scoring, second in rebounds, and first in assists on the Pacers.  Like Parsons, he's an across-the-board guy with a lot of potential on a struggling Charlotte team.

3. Trevor Ariza, Rockets SF
This guy's draft stock won't rise as much as the previous two, but he will be solid.  Ariza is a defensive specialist with an efficient three-point shooting capability.  In Houston, he will no longer have to shoulder a load like was required of him in Washington.  I would look for him to have increased efficiency, more threes, a solid number of steals and blocks, and a few boards every game.   If you can steal him deep in the draft, I recommend it.

4. Luol Deng, Miami SF
Deng has always been one of the best two-way players in the NBA.  At this point in his career, I would rank him at 2 or 3, behind LeBron and Paul George.  Regardless, Deng is a scorer, playmaker, rebounder, and defensive wall.  He will provide across the board stats, and on a team devout of LeBron James and with a dwindling Wade, look for Deng to be the team's 1st or 2nd playmaking option this year.

5. Tyson Chandler, Mavericks C
Think back to the 2011 NBA Finals.  Tyson Chandler is right in the middle, grabbing offensive and defensive rebounds, turning shots away and affecting even more, all while being very efficient.  I would assume similar numbers this year in his return to Dallas.  I wouldn't necessarily put him as a top 5 big man, but I wouldn't drop much further.  You could expect 10 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and .650 field goal percentage from him this season.

Other players to consider who's stock are rising:
Paul George, Pacers SF - with the loss of Stephenson, much more production and responsibility is opened up to George.
Jordan Hill, Lakers PF - with the loss of Pau Gasol, Hill steps in as the strongest power forward on the roster, and he showed sparks of greatness this last season.  Look for him to excel in L.A.
Carlos Boozer, Lakers PF - much as the same situation as Hill, it will be interesting to see if the Lakers start two power forwards, and if not, who will they decide to start.

Now, to players that are going to be negatively impacted by recent trades.

1. Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers PG
With the addition of LeBron to the Cavs roster, every player is given an instant boost of efficiency.  However, there is a good chance there will be a loss in production of Irving, Waiters, and Verejao, just for instance.  LeBron does everything, so naturally, there will be less for the other players to do.  Irving is no longer a top-5 fantasy point guard, especially considering his recent injury struggles.  Look for just about every Cavalier to level out fantasy-wise.

2. Isaiah Thomas, Suns PG
Last season, Thomas posted a solid season, making him relevant in just about every fantasy league.  Now on the Suns roster, Thomas is now the third point-guard in the rotation behind Dragic and Bledsoe.  Look for Thomas' production to decrease to that of a bench role.

3. Paul Pierce, Wizards SF
Pierce is no longer in his prime.  That was very relevant last year in Brooklyn, and now, he will be a third or fourth option at best in Washington.  You've got John Wall and Bradley Beal headlining the team, with Nene and Marcin Gortat down low.  Paul Pierce is a veteran bringing experience and knowledge, not fantasy statistics.

4. Dwyane Wade, Heat SG
Wade has faulty knees, and that's the main reason he will drop drastically this season.  If it wasn't apparent enough this last season that he is slowly deteriorating, nothing has changed and his drop will continue.  LeBron has been replaced with Deng, and Wade may have the ball a little more but will lose efficiency as well as have an increase in turnovers.


This is just a preliminary post especially considering the start of the NBA is still nearly three months away.  As the season gets closer, I will be back with more information and more recommendations.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Time to Trade LeBron James?


I'm going to start out by saying that I'm not a LeBron hater.  In fact, I'm actually a fan.  Not a die-hard fan, but how can you not be impressed by one of the greatest to ever play the game?

But when it comes to fantasy basketball, it's time to trade LeBron.  Not cheap, for sure, but trade him somehow.  "Why? He was my #1 pick!"  Yeah, mine too, but I just traded him for Steph Curry.  Here's the thing about LeBron.  First off, he's not playing as hard as he can, he's just playing as hard as he needs to.  And there's no fault in that, I mean they're winning games and why burn himself out when they're going to win anyway?  Not to take anything away, Bron Bron is playing great basketball as usual, averaging 26 points, 6.9 boards, and 6.5 assists per game this season.  The thing about LeBron that you don't get that you can get with other players is the game they just go off.  From LeBron, you're going to get a consistent 26-8-6 stat-line every game, with the occasional 30-12-8 or maybe a triple-double (although he hasn't recorded one yet this season).  However, guys like Curry are going to explode for 38 points and 15 assists, hitting 7 threes in a night, or guys like DeAndre Jordan or Kevin Love are going to pull down those 20+ rebounds and 6 blocks.  You won't get freak games like that from LeBron, because he's too good.  He's too much of a team player and wants to make his team better.  Great player, not so much fantasy-wise.

But all that aside, here's why you should really trade him.
Last season, LeBron missed six games.  Why's this important?  These six games all came within the last ten games of the season.  No, he wasn't injured.  He was resting.  Spoelstra likes to rest LeBron a bit toward the end of the season so he can be ready to roll for playoffs.  When does the end of the NBA season coincide with?  Fantasy playoffs.  I won my league last year because the guy I was playing had LeBron, and LeBron didn't play any of the last three games.  LeBron is a good player and good fantasy player none-the-less, but come playoff time, there's a pretty good chance he won't be playing.

The Heat and the Pacers are the only competitive teams in the East, and Spoelstra isn't going to burn out LeBron to ensure a #1 seed.  That's why I recommend trading for a star from the West, like Curry, Chris Paul, Aldridge, or even Harden.  These guys are going to be battling it out for the highest seed they can get, and with the Western Conference as tight as it is (4.5 games separating 1st and 4th), every game will count, meaning these guys are going to be playing hard all season through fantasy playoffs, especially during fantasy playoffs.

Here are a list of players I believe will be in the "LeBron" category, who will likely see resting periods as the season winds down:  LeBron James, Miami SF; Joakim Noah, Chicago C; Tim Duncan, San Antonio C; Paul George, Indiana SF (maybe not so much him, but I expect a few games); Roy Hibbert, Indiana C; David West, Indiana PF (Indiana will rotate games of resting players); Dwyane Wade, Miami SG (if you haven't traded Dwyane Wade by now, it might be too late... but try and get at least something for him)

Here are a list of players I believe will be seeing regular minutes even towards the last games of the season that you may be wondering about: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City SF; Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City PG; LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland PF; Carmelo Anthony, New York SF; Steph Curry, Golden State PG; Dwight Howard, Houston C; James Harden, Houston SG; Kevin Love, Minnesota PF; Anthony Davis, New Orleans C; DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles C; Chris Paul, Los Angeles PG

Best of luck to all in Week 14 of Fantasy Basketball, and if you've got LeBron James on your roster or any of the others in his category, trade him before it's too late!

My advice - try and get the sharp-shooting Super Splash Bro.