5 Tips for Trading Players in Fantasy Basketball

How do you know what a good trade looks like in fantasy basketball?

For the majority of trades, there is one person who is benefiting and one person who is getting the short end of the stick.  Even though both parties think the trade may be fair, it's not for one of them.  For instance, about two weeks ago, James Harden was slacking, and my friend got tired of his nonexistent first-round production.  Knowing I was a Rockets fan, he came to me first.  I told him I'd give David Lee for Harden, straight up, and he almost accepted.  He wanted to see what else he could get, so it ended up becoming a 3-for-3 trade, sending Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and David Lee to him in exchange for James Harden, Samuel Dalembert, and DeJuan Blair.  I immediately dropped the latter two.  So here I am, sending three real good players in exchange for one player who has been struggling and two players who I just dropped, because to me, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and LeBron James are a power trio and I could pick up two guys on waivers who were producing better than Blair and Dalembert.  So now you're wondering where I'm headed with this, and basically, I'm just going to give a few pointers on trade advice for fantasy basketball.

1. Never buy high.  Don't try to trade for a player when they're hot.  If they never cool down, chances are their owner won't trade them anyway, and you'd be getting taken advantage of if you came to an agreement.  For instance, don't try to trade for Westbrook now that he's almost hit a triple double in his last five straight games, but instead, wait for Westbrook to 4-22 from the field with 2 assists and 5 rebounds with 7 turnovers before you make an offer.  Obviously, this kind of performance is rare and this is an extreme example, but you catch my drift.

2. Multi-Player deals are the key. You'll never get the better deal on a one-for-one trade.  It just won't happen.  Nobody is going to give up their precious star for somebody who is producing worse than your target.  That's why you have to convince them with other players.  So, for instance, you want Steph Curry, and you want to trade John Wall for him.  Needless to say, nobody will part with Curry in that deal unless they're a die-hard Wizards fan, which is unlikely.  So take Curry and your friend's two worst players and offer up Wall and two guys you picked up off waivers that have had a few good games recently, and maybe he'll take a look and say, "Well Curry is better than Wall, but just by a little, and these two guys haven't been producing well for me, so sure, why not."  Now I'm not saying this works like a charm, but try it.  It's a lot more efficient than asking a one-for-one.

3. Know who's injured or sitting out.  Occasionally, players get injured and sit out for a few weeks, giving huge boosts to other players.  Let's take Andrea Bargnani for example.  Bargnani was barely doing anything, and then Chandler gets injured and Bargnani's minutes go up -> he becomes productive.  However, when Chandler comes back, Bargnani will become irrelevant.  When you piece Chandler's return with the resurgence of Amar'e Stoudemire, you don't want Bargnani on your team.  However, right now he's averaging 15 points and 5 rebounds in 31 minutes of action, a good bargaining chip for a big trade.  Throw him in the mix, and people will see his current production and may go for it.  He's currently the 23rd ranked power forward in the NBA (according to ESPN), but he won't be for long.  So pay attention to things like that.

4. Look at minutes.  As simple as it may sound, a player needs to be on the court to produce.  If he's not getting minutes, he won't bring you what he could.  Among the top 10 fantasy producers, they average 35 minutes per game.  You need those kinds of minutes in order to reach potential, and there's no point in having someone on your team who won't reach that potential.  Don't ever trade for somebody averaging less than 30 minutes per game.  That means they're either splitting the time with another player in that position, or they're coming off the bench, neither of which you want.

5. Consider the number of possessions.  When you watch a game, who is the offense run through?  Let's take the most extreme example in Carmelo Anthony.  He leads the league in shot attempts per game at 20.8, but he touches the ball on every possession.  In addition to his 39 minutes, he's a part of every offensive play during those minutes.  If he's a part of that play, then that's a much higher chance he will either score or get an assist on it.  Even better is LeBron.  What makes him so valuable is that he's a good passer and commands the ball on every play.  When was the last time you watched a Heat game where LeBron didn't touch the ball on a play?  Exactly.  Steph Curry, Chris Paul, and Luol Deng are prime players who control the possessions.  Let's look on the flip side.  Harrison Barnes and Corey Brewer average over 34 minutes per game each, yet average less than a lot of players on waivers. Why, if they're getting so much playing time?  In Barnes's case, on the Warriors, there are players like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson that the offense goes through every time.  You know that during the possession, Steph will have the ball.  Barnes, on the other hand, won't the majority of the time.  Much similar to Barnes, in Brewer's case on the Timberwolves, his ceiling is limited because of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love.  Rubio runs the offense and it will touch Love 80% of the time.  So don't just focus on minutes, but watch a game and see how the offense works.

I hope this helps everyone out and you can get some bargains on some top players.

Keep An Eye on Trade Targets – Trade Rumors

In this post, I’m going to focus on players who have trade rumors floating around and whether or not it will benefit or hinder them, and how you can predict what will happen.  The following players are up in the air right now: Kyle Lowry, Jordan Crawford, Omer Asik, Iman Shumpert, Jeremy Lin, Tyson Chandler, Zach Randolph, and Paul Millsap.  If you’re interested in trying one of your own, just click the following link to work some magic! http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

Now, obviously, some of these are more viable than others, so I’ll start with the ones that are extremely unlikely.

Tyson Chandler, Iman Shumpert, Pau Gasol: The Lakers are banged up, and New York is struggling.  The Lakers are now down three point guards in Steve Nash, Jordan Farmar, and now Steve Blake.  New York is down a center in Tyson Chandler, and has struggled to a record of 7-16.  There has been trade talk involving sending Chandler and Shumpert for Gasol and I assume one of these injured point guards in L.A.  However, Chandler is such a vital piece of the New York defense that even though he’s injured, I find it very unlikely New York would give him up especially for a player like Gasol.  So scratch that.  What I find more likely is L.A. makes a deal for Asik, but I’ll get to that.

Ryan Anderson for Zach Randolph: There has been talk that the Pelicans offered to deal the sharp-shooting Anderson to Memphis in exchange for Randolph.  Although Randolph is unique at the power forward position considering his scoring and rebounding skills, Anderson is even more of a rarity, and as long as the Pelicans have Anthony Davis, their rebounding is in check.  Not saying that if the Pelicans received a good offer for Anderson they wouldn’t trade him, but just saying that this particular trade is unlikely.  Memphis doesn’t want to part with Randolph either, making this trade pretty undesirable.  So scratch that.

Jordan Crawford in Miami?: Dwyane Wade isn’t at the level he once was.  Maybe he can still produce, but he’s not going to be there on any and every given night.  That being said, the Miami Heat are interested in bringing in Crawford as a scoring option while Wade rests.  Crawford is currently having a nice season in Boston in lieu of the injured Rondo and defensive-minded Bradley.  I don’t really see how Boston could benefit from a trade like this, though.  Norris Cole is too important to the second unit that Miami wouldn’t trade him; Michael Beasley? Joel Anthony? Ray Allen back to Boston? Yeah, right.  Personally, I just don’t see it happening, but it may appeal to a young player like Crawford to be put in a position to win a championship so young.  So consider this.  However, if this trade processed, D-Wade’s already declining value will drop, as well as Crawford’s, splitting time with Wade.

Kyle Lowry to New York: Not going to happen unless they get a player like Iman Shumpert, which hasn’t exactly been offered.  Lowry, despite the numbers, is more important to any team that people realize.  Lowry has the potential to flirt with a triple-double every night.  He’s the kind of player that will give his team 12 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds, and consistently.  He’s vital to Toronto; the offense runs through him.  Meanwhile, New York needs a point guard that can create something, considering Carmelo Anthony is almost always the center of the offense.  Now originally when I heard about this, I figured Toronto wouldn’t trade Lowry due to his necessity on the Raptors, despite their 9-13 record.  However, a Greivis Vasquez complicates/interests things.  He had a real coming out season in New Orleans, and he is much too good of a player to not be a starting point guard.  He now sits behind Lowry in the depth chart, and I agree that Lowry is better, but having a startable guard in Vasquez might open up the possibility of dealing Lowry if the trade is good enough.  So consider this. If a trade goes through and Toronto receives anything other than a point guard, Vasquez instantly becomes a top-20 fantasy option.  He neared triple-doubles and posted a double-double almost every night.  Last year, he had more double-doubles than even Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo, leading all guards.  He’s worth a start, and if Lowry gets traded, picking up Vasquez is the first thing you do.

Omer Asik: Ahh Omer Asik.  So much talk.  Where’s he headed?  The list goes on and on.  Atlanta, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Cleveland, New Orleans, Charlotte, pick one.  All that’s for certain is Houston wants to get rid of him.  Asik is a double-double machine with 2-3 blocks per game in a full-time role, although his offense still could use some work.  At this point, Houston just wants to get rid of him and his contract, and GM Daryl Morey is basically going to accept the best offer.  In Atlanta, Paul Millsap is a possibility.  As a Rockets fan, I like this.  However, Millsap is having such a nice season that it seems strange to trade him away.  On the other hand, Atlanta is starting two power forwards (Millsap and Horford), making this possible.  This would benefit Houston offensively and rebounding-wise, and would benefit Atlanta defensively.  Los Angeles, not happening.  Charlotte, not happening.  Philadelphia, maybe?  Word on the street is Philadelphia currently has the highest offer for him.  If this were true, they may be considering trading Thaddeus Young or even Spencer Hawes to Houston or a trade involving draft picks.  This would bring defense to Philly and a strong big man to Houston.  This is also a possibility.  If Asik was traded to Cleveland, Houston would be getting Anderson Verejao in return.  This is definitely a possibility, considering the shaky play of Andrew Bynum.  Asik would thrive in Cleveland with Kyrie Irving running the show, but I don’t see this happening unless nobody else offers for Asik.  He won’t be traded to New Orleans unless Houston gets Ryan Anderson for him.  Ryan Anderson would bring versatility to the power forward position in Houston, but Rockets defense would then be almost nonexistent.  However, either Anderson or Jones would be coming off the bench, and could provide a big spark for the second unit, which is what Houston needs.  

If you ask me? I think Houston should be looking to market Asik and Lin together for either a top-tier point guard or a startable wing coming off the bench to provide that second unit with some production.  Obviously, not many teams, if any, would be willing to pick up both Asik’s and Lin’s hefty contracts, so that sort of rules it out, unless there’s a three-team trade.  Either way, though, Asik could definitely be traded for a guard or forward who could run the show for the Rockets’ second unit.  Maybe to Toronto for Terrence Ross or Orlando for Maurice Harkless?  No idea how that kind of thing would work, but more likely than not, they will be receiving a power forward or center for Asik.  The bottom line is wherever Asik gets traded, that team wants him as a starter.  Nobody would buy Asik’s contract if they weren’t serious about playing him, so he will be a valuable fantasy asset.  My guess is around 12 PPG, 13 RPG, 2.5 BPG.  So try and get him now if you can.  That’s my advice.

Danny Granger: There haven’t been as many rumors about this guy, but he hasn’t played much over the past two years, so nobody knows what sort of condition he’s in besides the Pacers organization.  That being said, he’s still Danny Granger and Lance Stephenson has been playing well.  I have a feeling Indiana may try to market Granger, and if that comes, his fantasy value will rise because, similar to Asik, any team that is trading for Danny Granger wants to use him as a first or second option.  Keep an eye open.

Well, that’s all for today guys and, as usual, it’s been a pleasure.  If you’ve got any comments or questions, feel free to let me know!

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