Through the first 20 or so games of the season, anybody will tell you, “Hold on to your star; he’ll come around.” even if they’re in a slump. Here I am, for instance, managed to get the first pick in the draft with LeBron James. Through this point in the season, Lance Stephenson currently has 2 triple-doubles compared to LeBron’s 0. Now obviously, I won’t be getting rid of LeBron, and this is an extreme example, but if your star is under-producing, it may be time for a change.
Less dramatically, let’s take a look at David Lee. Last season, Lee averaged 18.5 PPG and 11.2 RPG, a double-double machine, even with the return of Andrew Bogut. This season, however, he’s falling in basically every category. His points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, and his minutes are all down from last season. Through the first few games, yeah sure stick it out, it’s David Lee, but now’s the time to trade him off. But don’t trade him at the value he’s playing at; trade him at the 2012-2013 David Lee. One tip to fantasy basketball: Buy low, sell high. Look for somebody with potential. Look for a star. Lee is a star, despite his decreased numbers, but there are 45 guys who are getting better fantasy numbers than he is. Don’t trade for Trevor Ariza just because Ariza averages more. Look for somebody consistent that you know will produce. Obviously, you’re not going to get Westbrook for Lee, but think more realistic, like Joakim Noah, Ryan Anderson, or Al Horford. Or even better, throw in some of your lower end players and try to get someone better. In my league, for example, I traded Lee pretty early. I wanted James Harden, so I offered up Lee, DeRozan, and Lowry for Harden, Blair, and Dalembert. I immediately dropped the latter two, so I basically traded three solid players for Harden. Obviously, I didn’t know that the Toronto Raptors’ cancer (Rudy Gay) was going to be traded, but either way, it was worth it. Long story short, guys like Lee, trade them while you can still get higher value out of them.
Other players like this are Dwyane Wade, George Hill, Tony Parker, Ricky Rubio, Pau Gasol, David West, Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, Carlos Boozer, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Kemba Walker, and Joe Johnson.
There are a few stars who are producing (fantasy-wise) way below where they should be, such as Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, and Evan Turner. Please, please, do not release these players. They have far too much upside to trade for any reason. Westbrook is limited by Durant’s production, but he’s the kind of player that will produce in every category and he has just worked his way back from an injury. I don’t even need to elaborate on why not to drop Paul George. Kyrie Irving is the only offense on a struggling team, meaning he’ll get the minutes, the shots, the assists, and that doesn’t even mention his Iverson-esque handles. Turner is more in the grey area, but Michael Carter-Williams is still injured, and Turner can score, rebound, pass, play defense, everything you want out of a player, and he leads the team in minutes.
Quiz time: Who do you keep on your roster out of this list of elite point guards?
I’ll tell you. Keep all of them.
Except Tony Parker.
I’ve already created a list of of players to watch this week, but I feel the need to add to it.
Amar’e Stoudemire: Keep an eye on this guy. Just two years ago, he was finishing his fourth consecutive season averaging over 21 PPG and 8 RPG, two of which he surpassed 25 PPG and 9 RPG. He underwent surgery, and I normally find it hard to trust a player that has undergone surgery like that. Tracy McGrady scarred me, but that’s a story for another day. Anyway, Amar’e is feeling it again. He’s been on a minutes restriction as of late, which has just been lifted, and tonight he just played in his first back-to-back game of the season. This is a struggling Knicks team, to say the least. The second highest paid team in the NBA has the third worst record in the league, and let me tell you, Kenyon Martin is not the answer. When Tyson Chandler comes back, yes, the power forward position on the Knicks will lose a lot of relevance, but Amar’e should be the #1 option at that spot, in front of Kenyon Martin and Andrea Bargnani. He’s got the talent and potential, and he hasn’t lost as much as everyone seems to think he has. Keep an eye on this guy, he may pull through. If you’re going to have any New York power forward, take Stoudemire.
Amir Johnson: The Toronto Raptor is probably my favorite player on waivers right now, if you do, in fact, fall in that 26.4% of leagues in which he is, for some reason, available. Rudy Gay averaged 18.6 field goal attempts per game. That’s almost 25% of the entire Raptor offense, and only scored 19.4 points per game to show for it. Now that he’s gone, that’s over 20 more possessions that need to be filled by someone. DeRozan is already getting his 17.7 FGA, and Lowry isn’t going to take 20 more shots. Neither is fill-in Terrence Ross. Ross may shoot about 8 times a game in Gay’s absence, but he still won’t be that difference. In the Raptors’ first game without Gay, Johnson scored 32 points on 14/17 shooting, to go with 10 boards, two blocks and two steals. The next game? 19 points and 9 rebounds. In each of his past three games, he’s taken more shots than he had in any other game this season, and with an inconsistent Valanciunas and an injured Hansbrough, Johnson’s got the paint on lock. I wouldn’t be surprised if, upon Hansbrough’s return from injury, they go small, bench Valanciunas, and start Johnson at the center. Either way, pick him up if you can.
Kenneth Faried: I honestly don’t understand why Faried’s minutes are being limited so much. I’m gonna guess because that it’s just because that’s the Nuggets style of play, because the Manimal deserves more than 24 minutes a game on any given night. Javale McGee is already injured, and once he comes back, I can’t say that Faried’s minutes are exactly going to increase. However, keep an eye on the situation just in case something unexpected happens.
Brandon Bass: On a team absolutely devoid of depth, Bass seems like a lock at his position on the Boston Celtics. He’s always been a hustle guy, getting those tough rebounds and putting up subtle but surprising stats. When Rondo returns here in a few weeks, Bass’s value will undoubtedly rise. You’ve got time, though, seeing as he’s only owned in 47.5% of ESPN leagues.
Andrew Bynum: This name has been tossed around the league throughout the past few years, but he’s got upside and incredible potential. He’s a double-double guy with 3 blocks per game when healthy. You don’t have much time, and he’s owned in all but 10% of leagues, but if you need a center, he’s worth a look. I might even consider trading low for him.
Tony Snell: In this situation, with no Derrick Rose and an injured Butler and Deng, I would normally tell somebody to pick up Tony Snell in a heartbeat. This is different because it’s the Bulls, though. They don’t score a whole lot, and Tony Snell isn’t a playmaker and hasn’t proved himself as en elite defender, although I do see some Butler/Deng potential in him, especially if he stays in Chicago long enough. In addition, it appears that Mike Dunleavy is taking the initiative to be the go-to guy in the defending duo’s absence, although not completely effectively. That being said, keep an eye on him. Butler is nursing a toe injury and Deng has an achilles injury which we don’t know a whole lot about, so if either of them were to take a significant amount of time off, it’s not crazy to think Snell might be that guy.
That’s about it for today, but if you have any questions pertaining to your roster or just want my opinion on a trade something, feel free to contact me.
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