Injured Players - Keep or Drop?

In this post, I'm going to discuss in-depth which injured players are worth holding onto and which injured players are not worth holding onto.  So here we are in Week 16, which runs two weeks long, and chances are you've got at least one player on your roster who you've considered dropping or trading because they've been out injured for a few weeks already and won't return until "after the All-Star break," as they always say.  So here's my opinion on each of those players, and why.

Players to keep:

1. Russell Westbrook - This guy's a no-brainer.  He is a constant threat to produce in every single category on any night, posting season averages around 21 pts, 6 rbs, 7 ast, 2 stl per game.  He posted a triple-double the game before he had surgery, and he'll come back just as strong.  Hold onto him.
2. Kobe Bryant - Ah, the most debatable player in fantasy basketball this year.  Should you keep him?  Should you drop him?  Trade him?  Anyone will give you a different answer, but I say keep him, and here's why.  Kobe wants to play.  If Kobe wants to play, then if he can, he will.  There's no reason he won't be back before the end of the season, and although the Lakers might not make playoffs, he'll be back for fantasy playoffs.  Now don't you want an elite scorer with passing and rebounding abilities on your roster?  I do.
3. Kawhi Leonard - He may be one of the guys you're more inclined to drop because he's just an average player on the rotational Spurs team.  Leonard is a must keep.  As the season winds down, especially during fantasy playoffs, Popovich begins resting his stars.  He will mainly rest Parker, Ginobli, and Duncan, and Leonard and Splitter will man the workload of the team.  The starting five for games down the stretch will probably look like Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli, Kawhi Leonard, Boris Diaw, and Tiago Splitter.  Leonard is the biggest asset because now, he has an increased role on the team and as a young player, he will probably play around 40 minutes a game toward the end of the season.
4. Ty Lawson - Absolutely.  Lawson is averaging almost 9 assists per game this season to accompany is 18 PPG.  He's a top-30 fantasy player, and despite his cracked rib, there's no other natural point guard on the Nuggets.  Randy Foye has been shouldering the workload, and now Quincy Miller will be doing some of the work.  Either way, the Nuggets are only 5 games out of playoffs and will be playing hard down the stretch to reach that 8-spot.
5. Eric Bledsoe - Bledsoe had been having a great season before his injury, and there's no reason he won't continue his success upon his return.  The All-Star break is already here, and he will probably be returning late February/early March.  If your roster can stand holding onto him, he's a great add if he's not owned in your league.

Players to release:

1. Anderson Verejao - Now this guy's debatable, and if you could make work out a trade with somebody that you get a pretty good deal on, I say take it.  Verejao is a prolific rebounder, but on a declining Cavs team, they won't rush Verejao back into action if he isn't 100%.  Verejao has a history of injuries, so if you can deal him away somehow, do it.
2. Larry Sanders - Sanders has just been diagnosed with a fracture to his orbital bone (eye), putting him out indefinitely.  Sanders has been dealing with all sorts of various injuries this season, and this just adds to the list.  Now you probably can't trade him before a timetable for his return is released, but it's worth a shot.  None of his previous injuries have crept back up, but as an injury risk, I think he provides for risk than he does reward.  Look for Zaza Pachulia or John Henson to command the most minutes in Sanders's absence.
3. Ersan Ilyasova - Ilyasova has been playing decent basketball lately, but even then, he brings below average scoring and below average rebounding from the power forward slot.  He's been shooting the ball better, but he has been having lingering back issues.  It's never good to hold onto players with lingering issues.  You never know when one game he'll suddenly be ruled out because his back issues flair up.  In most leagues, Ilyasova might not even be worth a trade, but definitely keep an eye on him.  Khris Middleton might be a nice pick-up in the meanwhile.
4. Dwyane Wade - Whatever you have to do to trade this guy, do it.  Wade has been having a injury season, to say the least, playing in just about half of the games.  He has potential if healthy, and he's too valuable to drop, but try and work a trade out where you'd be getting something more consistent.
5. Nick Young - He's a scorer at best, and very little besides that.  He will bring very little to your fantasy team and underproduces from the shooting guard position.  He's injured, and his return will most likely coincide with Kobe Bryant's.  Young is worth a drop; it's hard to justify holding onto him.

If you had any more questions about players I didn't mention, feel free to contact me and I'd be glad to give you my advice.

Pick Up These Point Guards - Win Your Fantasy Basketball League

Injuries in this year's NBA are more present and more excruciating than ever for fantasy owners.  Those who reaped the benefits of Chris Paul's and Russell Westbrook's outstanding play are now fiddling their thumbs waiting on news for these guys to return.  And to those who snagged Rondo in a late round, congratulations.  If you didn't, this is your chance.  This is the only chance you will have all season long to acquire a Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, or Rajon Rondo.  When people lose players to injury, they get neurotic and sort of freak out a bit.  They might do something rash if they are desperate enough.  This is your chance to make them do something rash, and to win your fantasy basketball league.

Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook both have about three to four weeks left before they'll return.  Playoffs are in March.  You can handle a struggle of four weeks (as long as you get into playoffs).  Westbrook and Paul are at the top of their games right now, and whatever you need to do to acquire them, do it.  Make a multi-player trade, or even make an even trade of some sort.  Look for someone who is playing exceptionally well right now, but will lose fantasy value when another player returns from injury.  What I'm saying is right now, the owners of Westbrook and Paul will consider any offer made to them, due to the promise of current production as opposed to future production.

You're also probably wondering, "Why would I take the gamble on an injured player if they might not even come back 100%?"  Then, you need to realize who we are talking about here.  We're talking about Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, the sort of guys that will put in the work to get back to 100%.  These are rare players who will do whatever it takes to return as soon as they can.  At the start of this season, Westbrook was supposed to be out until mid-December, but he began playing in early November.  And this time, he didn't even injure anything!  He posted a triple-double against New York, and then underwent preventative surgery.  And for Chris Paul, it's a shoulder injury.  Now I'm not saying shoulder injuries are harmless; just look at Tracy McGrady, but like I said, Paul will return and he will return hungry for wins and ready to prove his point and make his mark.  If you can persuade owners into letting these guys loose, do it.

Your window of opportunity is closing with Rajon Rondo, though.  You had your chance to pick him up before there was a "timetable" to return, and now he's hinting at a return as early as Friday, January 17.  Owners may still be optimistic but hesitant at the same time if you offer something good enough.  Act now.

The reason you should pick these guys up is an obvious one: they will help your team.  If you pick any of them up, whatever the sacrifice (within reason), you are putting yourself in a position to win that $500 pot for the championship, or just the pride of winning your league.

Best of luck to all in your endeavors of acquiring a point-guard.

Jeremy Lin, Tyreke Evans Among Top Pick-Ups

In light of recent events in the basketball world, I'd like to dedicate a short post to a few players I think are must-adds if you can grab them.  I'll cut to the chase.

Jeremy Lin

I'm a Rockets fan, and I wasn't a believer in Jeremy Lin.  I didn't think he was worth his contract, to say the least.  I didn't think he could be the point guard they needed to become a championship team, and maybe I still don't.  Either way, though, if there was any one player I could add right now, it's Lin.  He's showed his sparks of brilliance and his diversity.  He hit nine three-points in a single game, he's changed his shot a bit, can still pass the ball, and has proved to be a pretty efficient point guard.  He's averaging 14.3 points, 4.2 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists per game this season, and he's come off the bench in over half of the games.  The reason he is officially a must-have is because of injuries.  Patrick Beverley, the current starting point guard for the Rockets, has just been ruled out for the next 4-6 weeks, and Harden has a high-ankle sprain, which could prove to be a lingering injury.  To top it all off, Parsons is having lingering back spasms.  Not that Lin could replace Harden and Parsons, but long story short, Houston will need offense and production, and Howard won't get all the attention.  Lin, too, is coming off an injury, so be weary, but I picked him up, and I recommend it.  I actually think this might be the break he needs to get Houston's starting point guard gig back.

Tyreke Evans

Tyreke Evans.  A 6'6" point guard that produces in every category?  Yes, please.  Many fantasy owners were displeased with their drafting of Tyreke at the beginning of the year due to his lack of production.  Obviously, it's not easy sharing a point guard slot with Jrue Holiday.  Now Evans has been getting his share of the point guard position, but he's getting some shooting guard playing time, too.  Whatever it takes for this guy to be on the court is fine with me.  He's averaging 12 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.3 assists per game this season.  His points are slightly lower than last year; the guy's only getting 24.8 minutes per game this season.  It's a crime.  He's actually producing better this year than he did last year in 6 less minutes per game.  Following a triple-double against the now 20-9 Clippers (11 pts, 13 rbs, 10 ast), Evans posted another strong stat line against the now 23-5 Trailblazers, putting up 21 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals.  He's a good pick up under any circumstances, but if anything at all happens to Jrue Holiday, Evans is in for far more than just a 24 MPG role.  Grab him while you can.

Larry Sanders

I won't go in too much depth about him.  First things first, to clear the air, his injury was to his thumb.  His legs, shoulders, knees, they're all fine.  It was a thumb injury.  I've already talked about him a bit, but I can't get over the fact that nobody is talking about this guy.  2nd in blocks per game and 12th in rebounds per game last season, Sanders averaged 9.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game in only 27 minutes per game last year.  One more advantage is that his free throw percentage is above that of Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan, so that's not going to kill you if your league also is based on efficiency.  He's cleared for basketball activities and already working out at the Bucks' facility.  Like I said, his injury was to his thumb, so expect him to produce just as well if not better this year on a struggling Milwaukee team.  

Giannis Antetokounmpo

I'm not going to say I'm an expert on the guy or even that I know much about him.  That being said, if you're willing to take a gamble, as the Milwaukee Bucks are, take a chance and pick him up.  Worst case scenario, he's unproductive and you drop him three games later.  Best case scenario, he immediately becomes a double-double monster.  I'm thinking somewhere in between.  He's the youngest player in the NBA.  He's over 6'10", has a 7'3" wingspan, and he plays on the wing.  We're looking at a guy who could be comparable to Kevin Durant one day.  He's got the body type of Durant, athleticism, a decent-looking and work-in-progress jumpshot, can hit the three, chases down defenders... I mean he's destined for something one day.  I'm just not sure when.  It could be in his rookie year or in 2016, but if you want to take a chance, pick him up if you can.

Other Pick-Ups

Nick Young, Wesley Johnson, Danny Granger, Nene, and Greivis Vasquez

Best of luck in Week 9 and happy holidays!

Is It Time to Trade Your Stars?

Through the first 20 or so games of the season, anybody will tell you, “Hold on to your star; he’ll come around.” even if they’re in a slump.  Here I am, for instance, managed to get the first pick in the draft with LeBron James.  Through this point in the season, Lance Stephenson currently has 2 triple-doubles compared to LeBron’s 0.  Now obviously, I won’t be getting rid of LeBron, and this is an extreme example, but if your star is under-producing, it may be time for a change.  

Less dramatically, let’s take a look at David Lee.  Last season, Lee averaged 18.5 PPG and 11.2 RPG, a double-double machine, even with the return of Andrew Bogut.  This season, however, he’s falling in basically every category.  His points, rebounds, assists, field goal percentage, and his minutes are all down from last season.  Through the first few games, yeah sure stick it out, it’s David Lee, but now’s the time to trade him off.  But don’t trade him at the value he’s playing at; trade him at the 2012-2013 David Lee.  One tip to fantasy basketball: Buy low, sell high.  Look for somebody with potential.  Look for a star.  Lee is a star, despite his decreased numbers, but there are 45 guys who are getting better fantasy numbers than he is.  Don’t trade for Trevor Ariza just because Ariza averages more.  Look for somebody consistent that you know will produce.  Obviously, you’re not going to get Westbrook for Lee, but think more realistic, like Joakim Noah, Ryan Anderson, or Al Horford.  Or even better, throw in some of your lower end players and try to get someone better.  In my league, for example, I traded Lee pretty early.  I wanted James Harden, so I offered up Lee, DeRozan, and Lowry for Harden, Blair, and Dalembert.  I immediately dropped the latter two, so I basically traded three solid players for Harden.  Obviously, I didn’t know that the Toronto Raptors’ cancer (Rudy Gay) was going to be traded, but either way, it was worth it.  Long story short, guys like Lee, trade them while you can still get higher value out of them.

Other players like this are Dwyane Wade, George Hill, Tony Parker, Ricky Rubio, Pau Gasol, David West, Greg Monroe, Josh Smith, Carlos Boozer, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, Kemba Walker, and Joe Johnson.  

There are a few stars who are producing (fantasy-wise) way below where they should be, such as Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, and Evan Turner.  Please, please, do not release these players.  They have far too much upside to trade for any reason.  Westbrook is limited by Durant’s production, but he’s the kind of player that will produce in every category and he has just worked his way back from an injury.  I don’t even need to elaborate on why not to drop Paul George.  Kyrie Irving is the only offense on a struggling team, meaning he’ll get the minutes, the shots, the assists, and that doesn’t even mention his Iverson-esque handles.  Turner is more in the grey area, but Michael Carter-Williams is still injured, and Turner can score, rebound, pass, play defense, everything you want out of a player, and he leads the team in minutes.

Quiz time: Who do you keep on your roster out of this list of elite point guards?

I’ll tell you.  Keep all of them.

Except Tony Parker.

I’ve already created a list of of players to watch this week, but I feel the need to add to it.

Amar’e Stoudemire: Keep an eye on this guy.  Just two years ago, he was finishing his fourth consecutive season averaging over 21 PPG and 8 RPG, two of which he surpassed 25 PPG and 9 RPG.  He underwent surgery, and I normally find it hard to trust a player that has undergone surgery like that.  Tracy McGrady scarred me, but that’s a story for another day.  Anyway, Amar’e is feeling it again.  He’s been on a minutes restriction as of late, which has just been lifted, and tonight he just played in his first back-to-back game of the season.  This is a struggling Knicks team, to say the least.  The second highest paid team in the NBA has the third worst record in the league, and let me tell you, Kenyon Martin is not the answer.  When Tyson Chandler comes back, yes, the power forward position on the Knicks will lose a lot of relevance, but Amar’e should be the #1 option at that spot, in front of Kenyon Martin and Andrea Bargnani.  He’s got the talent and potential, and he hasn’t lost as much as everyone seems to think he has.  Keep an eye on this guy, he may pull through.  If you’re going to have any New York power forward, take Stoudemire.

Amir Johnson: The Toronto Raptor is probably my favorite player on waivers right now, if you do, in fact, fall in that 26.4% of leagues in which he is, for some reason, available.  Rudy Gay averaged 18.6 field goal attempts per game.  That’s almost 25% of the entire Raptor offense, and only scored 19.4 points per game to show for it.  Now that he’s gone, that’s over 20 more possessions that need to be filled by someone.  DeRozan is already getting his 17.7 FGA, and Lowry isn’t going to take 20 more shots.  Neither is fill-in Terrence Ross.  Ross may shoot about 8 times a game in Gay’s absence, but he still won’t be that difference.  In the Raptors’ first game without Gay, Johnson scored 32 points on 14/17 shooting, to go with 10 boards, two blocks and two steals.  The next game?  19 points and 9 rebounds.  In each of his past three games, he’s taken more shots than he had in any other game this season, and with an inconsistent Valanciunas and an injured Hansbrough, Johnson’s got the paint on lock.  I wouldn’t be surprised if, upon Hansbrough’s return from injury, they go small, bench Valanciunas, and start Johnson at the center.  Either way, pick him up if you can.

Kenneth Faried: I honestly don’t understand why Faried’s minutes are being limited so much.  I’m gonna guess because that it’s just because that’s the Nuggets style of play, because the Manimal deserves more than 24 minutes a game on any given night.  Javale McGee is already injured, and once he comes back, I can’t say that Faried’s minutes are exactly going to increase.  However, keep an eye on the situation just in case something unexpected happens.

Brandon Bass: On a team absolutely devoid of depth, Bass seems like a lock at his position on the Boston Celtics.  He’s always been a hustle guy, getting those tough rebounds and putting up subtle but surprising stats.  When Rondo returns here in a few weeks, Bass’s value will undoubtedly rise.  You’ve got time, though, seeing as he’s only owned in 47.5% of ESPN leagues.

Andrew Bynum: This name has been tossed around the league throughout the past few years, but he’s got upside and incredible potential.  He’s a double-double guy with 3 blocks per game when healthy.  You don’t have much time, and he’s owned in all but 10% of leagues, but if you need a center, he’s worth a look.  I might even consider trading low for him.

Tony Snell: In this situation, with no Derrick Rose and an injured Butler and Deng, I would normally tell somebody to pick up Tony Snell in a heartbeat.  This is different because it’s the Bulls, though.  They don’t score a whole lot, and Tony Snell isn’t a playmaker and hasn’t proved himself as en elite defender, although I do see some Butler/Deng potential in him, especially if he stays in Chicago long enough.  In addition, it appears that Mike Dunleavy is taking the initiative to be the go-to guy in the defending duo’s absence, although not completely effectively.  That being said, keep an eye on him.  Butler is nursing a toe injury and Deng has an achilles injury which we don’t know a whole lot about, so if either of them were to take a significant amount of time off, it’s not crazy to think Snell might be that guy.

That’s about it for today, but if you have any questions pertaining to your roster or just want my opinion on a trade something, feel free to contact me.

http://fantasyforums.wordpress.com/2013/12/11/is-time-to-trade-your-stars/