Monday, February 10, 2014

Week 16 Free Agent Finds

Well I can't say I didn't tell you so.  If you missed out on picking up Randy Foye, there's not a lot of hope left, seeing as he is owned in over 94% of fantasy basketball leagues now.  No Nate Robinson, no Andre Miller, and now Ty Lawson has a cracked rib?  I bet you're just kicking yourself.

Well all that aside, let's take a look at your best prospects for waiver wire pickups here in Week 16.

1. DeMarre Carroll, Hawks SF - Carroll is really having quite a coming out party this year on a pretty banged up Hawks team.  This past month, he's averaging 15.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.1 treys and 1.7 steals.  In my opinion, he's the second best player to own on the Hawks, from a fantasy perspective, right behind Paul Millsap.  Scoop him up if he's available in your league.

2. Steve Nash/Steve Blake, Lakers PG - In shallow leagues, maybe these guys won't be extremely relevant, but in deeper leagues, both of these guys will have fantasy value.  Upon return from injuries, Nash will start at the point guard and Blake will start at the 2-guard.  Both players will have ample opportunities to drop some dimes and hit a few threes.  Jordan Farmar probably won' t have much fantasy relevance.

3. Danny Green, Spurs SG - I'm not a Spurs fan, especially from a fantasy perspective, mainly due to the way Popovich uses his players.  On any given day, Green or Belinelli's minutes could range from 15-35, depending on how they're playing, but you can't overlook the fact that San Antonio is hurting for health, with Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobli both missing a significant amount of time.  Upon Leonard's return in a few weeks, Green will be irrelevant, but he's worth a short add if you need a boost this week.

4. Raymond Felton, Knicks PG - It's hard to imagine that Felton's slump will continue for much longer.  He's never been a top-tier point guard,  but over the past month, he's averaging about 10 points and 6 assists.  Not great numbers, and obviously any point guard on a team with Carmelo Anthony can't expect much more production, but Felton's a guy to keep an eye on if you need a short-term add.

5. Wesley Johnson, Lakers SF - Johnson is a story, no doubt, but when you look at him, just statistically, there's no reason you don't want him on your team.  ESPN analysts have bragged about "1+1+1" players all year long, meaning players that get at least 1 block, 1 steal, and 1 three pointer a game, and Johnson is one of the few players in the league doing that.  But more importantly, since the Lakers have found health at the point guard position, Johnson is averaging almost 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks a game.  The pressure will be taken off of Johnson, but he'll still be the only player on the Lakers clocking 40 minutes a night.

6. Jordan Hill, Lakers PF/C - Jordan Hill is also worthy of a pick up, at least in the short term.  Gasol will be out at least until after the All-Star Break, so Hill will be a smart add for at least this week of play.  Coming off the bench behind Robert Sacre (probably not for much longer), Jordan Hill has logged 29 points and 15 rebounds over the last two games, and he's worth keeping an eye on.

7. Ryan Kelly, Lakers SF/PF - Now Hill is a great short term add, but if you're looking to the future, pick up Ryan Kelly.  He's impressed coach D'Antoni with his three-point shot, giving himself a spot in the starting lineup.  Over the past month, D'Antoni has given Kelly almost 28 minutes a game, and he's only recently begun starting.  The Lakers don't need a player like Hill in the starting lineup while Gasol is healthy.  The starting line will be Nash, Blake, Johnson, Kelly, and Gasol.  I don't really like any of the Lakers due to their inconsistency this season, but it's hard to think players like Kelly won't benefit from a player like Nash spreading the ball around.

Players who have lost or are losing fantasy relevance very quickly:
If you haven't already traded or dropped these players, try to work out a trade quickly before they lose relevance altogether.

1. Darren Collison, Clippers PG - Needless to say, with the return of Chris Paul, Collison will no longer bring much to any fantasy team unless there are any setbacks with Paul, which is unlikely.

2. Jamaal Crawford, Clippers SG - A lot of Crawford's production over the past few months has been opportunities due to him running the show, and now with the return of Paul, back-up point guard duties are now on Collison.  Crawford will only really help you in deeper leagues, but he's definitely a better option than some.

3. J.J. Redick, Clippers SG - The return of Paul will definitely impact many players, and some may think that Redick's production will return to how it was early in the season with Paul back.  However, I don't really think so.  Redick's got a sweet shot, but I can't see him producing much more than a couple threes a game and maybe a few assists.


How much of a risk are you willing to take?

It might be time to consider trading for Kobe Bryant.  Right about now, picking up Kobe is a gamble to say the very least.  However, he's the kind of player that, if he comes back, he will be great.  If he comes back.  Here's my opinion.  Kobe isn't going to be playing for much longer.  He already announced he would play two more years and retire.  Now there's no telling how this season will affect that, but I guarantee he won't cut his career short.  He's Kobe.  Kobe wants to play, and Kobe wants to win.  There might never have been another player with as much will to win as Kobe.  The Lakers are officially 12 games out of playoffs.  12 games behind the 8 seed.  It's unlikely the Lakers will make the playoffs, as this year the West has taken more shape than previous years.  Needless to say, though, if there's a chance, Kobe will take advantage of it.  I expect Kobe to start playing late February, early March at the latest, and while some people think he might rest, taking days off isn't Kobe Bryant.  I'm not a fan, but I'm just stating the facts.  If you can buy him low right now (and a lot of owners are probably worried about not making playoffs), then go for it.  He's a high risk-high reward player.




Best of luck in Week 16!

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