For the past nine years, LeBron James has dominated fantasy basketball and commanded the #1 or #2 draft pick in just about every draft since he's been in the league. And he's been well-deserving of it. LeBron may very well be in his prime as a player, but returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers hurts his fantasy value. Here's why.
1. He's no longer the only player on his team. Yeah, yeah, he had Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. Wade played maybe half the games in the 2013-2014 season, and Chris Bosh doesn't create for himself. He was more of a LeBron-get-me-the-ball-and-then-I'll-score type of guy. Now, he's joining a team who already has an All-Star and all-around point-guard in Kyrie Irving, the #1 draft pick Andrew Wiggins, Dion Waiters, and potentially Kevin Love. He's surrounded with people who can score and create, and he no longer has to shoulder the full load of both.
2. He won't be bringing the ball down as often. Similarly to the previous statement, LeBron will not be commanding as many point-forward duties as he did in Miami. In Miami, the starting point-guard was Mario Chalmers, whose claim to fame was a game-winning shot in the NCAA Tournament. (Harsh, but true.) His back-up, Norris Cole, was more efficient and has higher potential than Chalmers, in my opinion. But no matter who was on the court, LeBron brought the ball down most of the time. He won't be bringing it down as often in Cleveland with Kyrie Irving at point, taking away from his time with the ball.
3. He won't be required to rebound as much. In Miami, his bigs were Chris Anderson (Birdman) and Chris Bosh, who averaged 5.3 and 6.6 RPG, respectively, a total of 11.9 a game. In Cleveland, the bigs are Tristan Thompson and Anderson Verejao, who averaged 9.2 and 9.7 RPG, respectively, for a total of 18.9. Add Kevin Love to the mix, and that takes even more rebounds away from LeBron.
Add it all up, I see a reduction of LeBron's stats across the board - points, assists, and rebounds. However, that also opens up LeBron for increased efficiency, if it's even possible to shoot higher than 56.7% from the field, and a decrease in turnovers from his 3.5 per game last year. It's possible that LeBron becomes a little more complacent in Cleveland because of the depth there, but that he becomes more efficient. I would still draft him in the top 7, but I can definitely think of at least five players who I would select before him in the draft.
Here are my top fifteen rankings:
1. Kevin Durant
2. Chris Paul
3. LaMarcus Aldridge
4. Anthony Davis
5. Stephen Curry
6. Russell Westbrook
7. Kevin Love
8. John Wall
9. LeBron James
10. DeMarcus Cousins
11. James Harden
12. Derrick Rose
13. Paul George
14. Joakim Noah
15. Kobe Bryant (if healthy); if not, Blake Griffin
Runners-up for the top fifteen include: Kyle Lowry, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, Chandler Parsons, Al Horford, Goran Dragic, Damian Lillard, Carmelo Anthony, and Kyrie Irving.
I will submit full top 100 rankings a few weeks before the start of the fantasy league drafts, but until then, study up!
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