Why Derrick Rose Will be a Top 15 Fantasy Player

"My confidence is very high...my confidence level is through the roof."

In case you missed these Team USA Camp highlights going viral in the sports world, take a minute to see the kind of shape Derrick Rose is in.

In my opinion, he becomes a top 15 fantasy option.  You might be able to get him lower, but he won't fall far, despite his injuries.  The previous Rookie of the Year and MVP is going to return to full form by playoffs at the very latest, if not 20 games in.  You might also be able to trade cheap for him if he struggles early on.  But he's had surgery on both knees, both stronger now than before, and he's had two years to perfect his shot and work on his game.

The difference now is that he has shooters on his team.  Jimmy Butler has been coming around, Mike Dunleavy is a specialty shooter, and Doug McDermott, the NCAA leading scorer, will be huge for them.  He has three great shooters to facilitate to, not to mention that Pau Gasol can knock down a mid range jumper as well as, if not better than, Carlos Boozer.

Rose is the number 1 facilitator on the team, has a great nose for the ball, and has a full team of options for passing the ball to.  By the All-Star Break, I predict Rose will be back around 23 PPG, 8 APG, 4 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 3 TPG, and shooting above 45%.  However, right out the gate, there is a possibility he struggles around 15 PPG and 5 APG on 30% shooting with 4 TPG.  That is one reason I might recommend passing if you can get a great player early and then trading cheap for him.

Bottom line is, I don't draft Rose in the first round, but if he's available in the second round, he's mine, no question about it.

Why LeBron's Fantasy Value Drops in Cleveland

For the past nine years, LeBron James has dominated fantasy basketball and commanded the #1 or #2 draft pick in just about every draft since he's been in the league.  And he's been well-deserving of it.  LeBron may very well be in his prime as a player, but returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers hurts his fantasy value.  Here's why.

1. He's no longer the only player on his team.  Yeah, yeah, he had Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami.  Wade played maybe half the games in the 2013-2014 season, and Chris Bosh doesn't create for himself.  He was more of a LeBron-get-me-the-ball-and-then-I'll-score type of guy.  Now, he's joining a team who already has an All-Star and all-around point-guard in Kyrie Irving, the #1 draft pick Andrew Wiggins, Dion Waiters, and potentially Kevin Love.  He's surrounded with people who can score and create, and he no longer has to shoulder the full load of both.

2. He won't be bringing the ball down as often.  Similarly to the previous statement, LeBron will not be commanding as many point-forward duties as he did in Miami.  In Miami, the starting point-guard was Mario Chalmers, whose claim to fame was a game-winning shot in the NCAA Tournament.  (Harsh, but true.)  His back-up, Norris Cole, was more efficient and has higher potential than Chalmers, in my opinion.  But no matter who was on the court, LeBron brought the ball down most of the time.  He won't be bringing it down as often in Cleveland with Kyrie Irving at point, taking away from his time with the ball.

3. He won't be required to rebound as much.  In Miami, his bigs were Chris Anderson (Birdman) and Chris Bosh, who averaged 5.3 and 6.6 RPG, respectively, a total of 11.9 a game.  In Cleveland, the bigs are Tristan Thompson and Anderson Verejao, who averaged 9.2 and 9.7 RPG, respectively, for a total of 18.9.  Add Kevin Love to the mix, and that takes even more rebounds away from LeBron.

Add it all up, I see a reduction of LeBron's stats across the board - points, assists, and rebounds.  However, that also opens up LeBron for increased efficiency, if it's even possible to shoot higher than 56.7% from the field, and a decrease in turnovers from his 3.5 per game last year.  It's possible that LeBron becomes a little more complacent in Cleveland because of the depth there, but that he becomes more efficient.  I would still draft him in the top 7, but I can definitely think of at least five players who I would select before him in the draft.

Here are my top fifteen rankings:
1. Kevin Durant
2. Chris Paul
3. LaMarcus Aldridge
4. Anthony Davis
5. Stephen Curry
6. Russell Westbrook
7. Kevin Love
8. John Wall
9. LeBron James
10. DeMarcus Cousins
11. James Harden
12. Derrick Rose
13. Paul George
14. Joakim Noah
15. Kobe Bryant (if healthy); if not, Blake Griffin

Runners-up for the top fifteen include: Kyle Lowry, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, Chandler Parsons, Al Horford, Goran Dragic, Damian Lillard, Carmelo Anthony, and Kyrie Irving.

I will submit full top 100 rankings a few weeks before the start of the fantasy league drafts, but until then, study up!